Buenos Aires, November 26 (NA) – Major national and international banks and consulting firms have cut their forecast for Argentina's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improvement for 2026, estimating the economy will grow by 3.1%. This forecast, based on calculations from 50 entities as part of a regional analysis, represents 0.2 percentage points less than the previous estimate, according to the Argentine News Agency.
In this regard, the entity explained in the report: "Our panelists have recently revised their GDP growth projections downward, although it remains solid by regional standards." It also detailed that Argentina's economic activity fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July.
In the regional analysis, the study warned that Latin America's economy grew by an average of only 1.4% in the decade leading up to 2024, the worst performance among all regions of the world. In this sense, it pointed out: "The chronic political instability of Latin America, high levels of crime and corruption, the deficient education system, dependence on the volatile commodities sector, and the lack of presence in fast-growing industries such as electronics and information technology are factors that have hindered regional GDP growth over the last decade."
Similarly, FocusEconomics stated that Latin America will remain the slowest-growing emerging market until 2029, with an average annual GDP growth of just over 2%.
In terms of monetary policy, analysts expect interest rate cuts to continue throughout the region, but at a slower pace, indicating that "the magnitude of the cuts will be smaller than that observed between 2023 and 2025, as rates are now much closer to their neutral levels."
In this framework, they state: "Lower interest rates, combined with higher inflation than in the US and persistent political instability, are expected to cause a depreciatory trend in most Latin American currencies in the coming years."
At the same time, they suggested that if the trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur begins to be implemented, it would create a free trade zone for more than 700 million people.
On this aspect, the report highlighted that "a key advantage for Latin America would be the region's agricultural exporters, who would benefit from greater access to the European Union's food market, which has been highly protected until now."
In the same vein, it added that "the reduction of tariffs on industrial products could exert downward pressure on inflation in Latin American countries, while EU investment in Latin America would likely increase."
